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zelensky
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Geopolitics
Geopolitics
All
Trump
Iran
Ukraine
Foreign Policy
Trump-Zelenskyy
Iran Ceasefire
U.S. x Iran
China
Courts
NATO
Negotiation Topics
Oil
Peace Deal
Strait of Hormuz
Trump Presidency
Venezuela
Bitcoin
Crypto Legal
eu
Gaza
Hormuz
India
Israel
Macro Geopolitics
Middle East
Military Actions
Nicolas Maduro
Nuclear
putin
Russia
Russia Capture
Security Guarantee
ships
transit
Trump-Putin
Ukraine Map
Uranium
US-Iran
Vance
zelensky
US-Iran deal text released by...?
June 16
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
June 17
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
June 30
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
$6.4M Vol.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
June 30
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
June 15
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
July 31
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
June 21
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
June 19
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
$55.1M Vol.
What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?
Troop Withdrawal
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Enrichment of Uranium
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
$8.0M Vol.
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
50%
chance
Yes
No
$7.3M Vol.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
50%
chance
Yes
No
$27.9M Vol.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
June 30, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
September 30, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
July 31, 2026
—
Yes
—
No
—
$6.7M Vol.
Maduro guilty of all counts?
50%
chance
Yes
No
$119k Vol.
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
50%
chance
Yes
No
$2.0M Vol.
Will any country leave NATO by...?
June 30, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
December 31, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
$1.2M Vol.
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?
June 30, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
December 31, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
$2.6M Vol.
Ukraine election called by...?
June 30, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
December 31, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
August 31, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
$1.6M Vol.
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?
50%
chance
Yes
No
$317k Vol.
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
50%
chance
Yes
No
$970k Vol.
US x Russia military clash by...?
June 30, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
December 31, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
$1.6M Vol.
Ukraine election held by...?
June 30, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
December 31, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
$2.5M Vol.
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
50%
chance
Yes
No
$299k Vol.
Maduro Prison Time?
20–40
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
<20
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
60+
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
No prison time
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
40–60
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
$569k Vol.
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