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Economy
Economy
All
Business
Trump
Economic Policy
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AI
Argentina
Big Tech
Bitcoin
China
Crypto Legal
currency
DeepSeek
economics
Ethereum
Fed
Fed Rates
Fiscal
Gov Reserve
Hormuz
Iran
Macro Geopolitics
Macro Graph
Macro Indicators
Oil
Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec
ships
Strait of Hormuz
Taxes
transit
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
50%
chance
Yes
No
$27.9M Vol.
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
1 (25 bps)
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
2 (50 bps)
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
3 (75 bps)
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
4 (100 bps)
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
5 (125 bps)
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
6 (150 bps)
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
7 (175 bps)
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
8 (200 bps)
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
9 (225 bps)
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
10 (250 bps)
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
11 (275 bps)
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
12+ (300+ bps)
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
$36.9M Vol.
Largest Company end of June?
NVIDIA
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Apple
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Tesla
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Amazon
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Microsoft
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Alphabet
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Saudi Aramco
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Company B
—
Yes
—
No
—
Company D
—
Yes
—
No
—
Company F
—
Yes
—
No
—
Company H
—
Yes
—
No
—
Company J
—
Yes
—
No
—
Company L
—
Yes
—
No
—
Company N
—
Yes
—
No
—
Company P
—
Yes
—
No
—
Company R
—
Yes
—
No
—
Company T
—
Yes
—
No
—
Company A
—
Yes
—
No
—
Company C
—
Yes
—
No
—
Company E
—
Yes
—
No
—
Company G
—
Yes
—
No
—
Company I
—
Yes
—
No
—
Company K
—
Yes
—
No
—
Company M
—
Yes
—
No
—
Company O
—
Yes
—
No
—
Company Q
—
Yes
—
No
—
Company S
—
Yes
—
No
—
Other
—
Yes
—
No
—
$23.0M Vol.
US recession by end of 2026?
50%
chance
Yes
No
$1.6M Vol.
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
50%
chance
Yes
No
$970k Vol.
Fed abolished before 2027?
50%
chance
Yes
No
$4k Vol.
Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?
50%
chance
Yes
No
$16k Vol.
US national Ethereum reserve before 2027?
50%
chance
Yes
No
$17k Vol.
Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026?
50%
chance
Yes
No
$22k Vol.
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