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zelensky
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
50%
chance
Yes
No
$7.3M Vol.
Starmer out by...?
June 30
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
December 31
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
July 31
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
August 31
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
October 31
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
June 26
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
June 22
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
$33.2M Vol.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
June 30, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
September 30, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
July 31, 2026
—
Yes
—
No
—
$6.7M Vol.
Maduro guilty of all counts?
50%
chance
Yes
No
$119k Vol.
Macron out by June 30, 2026?
50%
chance
Yes
No
$2.0M Vol.
Will any country leave NATO by...?
June 30, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
December 31, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
$1.2M Vol.
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?
June 30, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
December 31, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
$2.6M Vol.
Ukraine election called by...?
June 30, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
December 31, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
August 31, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
$1.6M Vol.
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?
50%
chance
Yes
No
$317k Vol.
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
50%
chance
Yes
No
$970k Vol.
US x Russia military clash by...?
June 30, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
December 31, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
$1.6M Vol.
Ukraine election held by...?
June 30, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
December 31, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
$2.5M Vol.
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
50%
chance
Yes
No
$299k Vol.
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?
50%
chance
Yes
No
$175k Vol.
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